sustained COVID-19 infections that overtime more protection was produced against HCoV-OC43’s spike that its own, in an apparent expression of Original Antigenic Sin, that should’ve defined SARS-CoV-2’s infective family and provided clues to its origins – not a paradox.
Paradoxical because HCoV-OC43 is a coronavirus that’s been endemic to humans for at least 100 years, possibly originally jumping into humans during a bovine-based pandemic in the late 19th century, and traces its origins through cows and back to mice.
Also, China seems to be very extreme on lockdowns.
It also does things that we do not do, like spraying surfaces and using flame throwers. What does China know that "we" do not know? Specifically about how it spreads?
Do you think they know what the virus wants to revert to?
Yes of course, to make a LAV first you have to make the chimera, that was the process with Yellow Fever to get a LAV that worked - OPV is also based off a chimera as well I believe. So it's an unnatural construct, but in the case of Yellow Fever and OPV/Polio, they had genes spliced around but the chimeras were almost exactly the same as the wild virus, they just mixed the genes around.
That's nothing like the chimera they had to build to make for COVID, which we know is based off both bat and common-cold genes from the OAS it elicits - so it's fundamentally unnatural. Something like the one in UNC in 2015, or like SARS or MERS which were also likely templates that got out before they were attenuated too far down into LAVs.
China was likely keeping the original highly-pathogenic chimera in its complete form as a weapon, or for an "accidental" release near Taiwan, which they'd miraculously have the perfect LAV already ready for, allowing them to come to the rescue.
So yes China knows exactly where this thing is going, and they're going apeshit because they know how horrible it is, and because even at this stage it may already have seeded something HIV-like in people who were hardly even symptomatic, that won't emerge for years. China is doing the reasonable thing and taking the threat seriously, the West is sleepwalking directly into extinction.
This entire pandemic is going to be a massive lesson in the concept of the passage of time between East and West, and it is not going to end well for us.
But at the same time I am trying to keep an open mind for an idea that Covid (all Covid, not just Omicron) may carry a hidden danger despite being seemingly mild for most people. And that China, knowing better what Covid is, may be not stupid in imposing super costly totalitarian mitigations.
What you said in your response above is internally consistent with everything I know.
There is also a suggestion floating around that Omicron is itself a secretly lab made "mild natural Covid vaccine". (the lack of synonymous gene changes make me personally almost certain that Omicron is lab made) I spent days considering it but decided that it is not mild enough to truly be such and we continue to be played with.
I am glad that I found your writings, because they explain not only that "Covid was made in a lab", but what was going on in the lab and why.
Russian conspiracy theorists always say that Covid was made at UNC and released in Wuhan to hide the origin. I do not dwell on this too much because in my own mind, there is no evidence to go by.
Also if it was not made by the Chinese, they would not know enough to be panicking as much as they do.
Now going back to Chinese mitigation such as spraying, do you think that there is alternative ways for covid to spread besides "the air"? You mentioned cholera once and it got me thinking. Cholera was also thought to spread via "miasma" until they figured out the water route.
Yeah everyone talking about Omicron being made in a lab is missing the fact that COVID was itself made in a lab, so it's going to continually display unnatural behavior. All that's happening is a LAV reverting, which isn't natural evolution and so looks unnatural.
That conspiracy isn't all that far off, in that at least the theory for this SARS-like LAV almost certainly started at UNC since that's the only place on earth making them, so that's kinda at least halfway there if not three-quarters. The research behind COVID started at UNC even if the virus itself might not have, or maybe it did - not sure it matters that much in the end.
And yeah COVID can almost certainly spread through poop, there was one case in Hong Kong apartments back at the start I think, and just yeah based on the fact the full swarm is in anal swab samples, seems to follow poops spreads it very well. That's also likely what accelerated the deattenuation at the WMG, since they brought in 250k extra people and almost certainly thousands of porta-potties.
That haphazard sanitation likely created the conditions for the FCS to emerge, and may be why China is spraying all over the place, I've heard they shit in holes basically everywhere over there, so I'd imagine in the cities they have homeless and whoever else crapping outside, so they need those sprays.
Thanks. It is a really good point about LAV reverting looking unnatural because the original LAV (the wuhan virus) was unnatural, so it would behave unnaturally when reverting, also. I never thought about that and while I do not know enough to make a judgment as to whether what you say is definitely true, it is a possibility that I cannot dismiss.
Omicron being a product of a lab is my pet theory, so I will have hard times letting it go and will keep seeking confirming evidence, but I will not forget what you said and it makes a good amount of sense.
Past immunity does still seem to work though, right? What is the experience with past coronaviruses, like cold coronaviruses, does natural immunity also wane over time?
If, hypothetically, a covid-recovered person like me was challenged with the full strength chimera virus that Covid was attempted to be a live vaccine for, do you think that chimera would fuck me up or it would be a no big deal?
I do know that it is hypothetical but I like to think about hypotheticals. I have a well developed sense of danger and I was able to stay out of a few bad shits before, like I was in cash during all major stock market crashes etc. My sense of danger also blared alarm about covid vax.
And when you said what you said about the virus regaining full strength, my sense of danger was also alarmed because I realized that it is not just crazy talk from an uninformed twitter weirdo, but there is a lot of logic behind that suggestion.
But the main question for me is, will the full strength virus be able to blow through existing natural immunity, especially for the vaccine-free. I believe that the vaccinated may not be acquiring the proper multi-antigen natural immunity but just make more useless Wuhan antibodies when challenged with live virus.
It's discussed at the start of part I, when OPV reverts in orphanages, the virus that emerges, a vaccine-derived polio-virus (VDPV) blows through both natural and vaccine immunity - they are an unstoppable nightmare.
Other CVs are natural and do natural things, this is not undergoing a natural process.
It's happening in real time, go back in my Twitter at any point and I have been steadily sounding the alarm at each phase of this, I am trying to explain what's happening but no one wants to listen.
Thanks. This was a very interesting discussion. I understand that nothing is certainly decided, but your theory does not contradict anything I know. As always predicting the future is dangerous. But I do think that your alarmist mindset is actually grounded in reality.
I understand that viruses may possibly cause cancers, which also deattenuate in nature. Every cancer can revert/deattenuate back into the the histology of the basic tissue of origin. My postulate is that viruses effect these tissues and swarm into cancers of the host tissue substrates, as well as other strains of the virus. This cancer effect on tissues by viruses may be caused from vaccines as well, which is not well proven only theorized in both accounts. But if it proves to be a possibility that viruses/vaccines create cancers, then how much new cancer is being created with COVID-19 and it's multiple vaccines?
The organ systems that manifest the virus, may not only allow it to develop into various strains of virus for the particular organ in a swarm, but also may develop many types of cancer for host tissues in a viral swarm: cancer on a quantum mathematical scale.
Yeah that's a terrifying question, and you're right in that there are likely going to be all kinds of cancers emerging from both the virus and the gene-therapies.
I don't have a good background in this, but I can point you to someone who does - He does study-groups on Sundays:
There is no terror when you know the truth, only resolve. Stay strong and keep up the good fight. Connect with others whom speak the truth and be at peace as the war rages around you. Love conquers fear.
Outstanding work Dan, thank you. You got serious flak for this, going public took real courage. Three (perhaps borderline helpful) points, next post three questions.
(1) Can't believe that these questions, especially the implications of quasispecies swarm behavior, are not widely addressed by the scientific community. This goes beyond SARS-CoV-2.
(2) Yet I understand: it took me more than a year to start & finish some (most?) of your essays after first seeing them, because they are at odds with the wider literature that so many keep churning out. Same dynamics as we see in climate science, where the essential - and challenging detail - is easily buried in a mass of ill-understood mainstream trivialities. No easy way out but to laserfocus on what matters most.
(3) Confronting the masses with complexity they cannot possibly solve is a conscious choice (=flooding the zone) for both the pandemic and climate breakdown - call it schismogenesis, bodyguard manipulation or "gamification" of public policy, to take some of the twitter hashtags we've been attributing to it -, because public discourse could easily be reorganized if people wanted. Key question: what now?
[edit: inserted second part here for context; I first thought it's too long]
Three questions that would help me to see clarified:
(4) You mention "unproven" mRNA vaccine technology: is it? - "The basic formulation for the current mRNA vaccine was submitted for patent in 2010. A MERS adoption was field tested for 10 years on every military member vacationing with a gun to the hostile parts of Middle East." (https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1585284107331899394) - The level of public discourse is poor especially among many anti-vaccine conspiracy folks and pandemic youtube doctors, who misled their audience. After global Let 'er R.I.P policy, outside China there is no good way anymore to separate experiment and control groups, as any experimental setup may be contaminated from past infections. Hence the history of the vaccine may merit more serious analysis.
(5) You mention that a vaccine targeting the full genome may be preferrable to the first-gen spike-focused ones. How does this fit with one of the possible pathogenesis theories, whereby a nucleocapsid (N protein)-heavy response contributes to organ damage, and a spike-heavy response may be preferred? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-022-01133-5
This is no rhetorical question; many of you will have looked into the complement-mediated damage in SARS-CoV-2. I'm probably just overlooking some simple mechanisms that connects the complement cascade to the vast majority of ongoing research.
Let me quote one abstract, as this may help readers get the context (preprint from 2020, published 2022): "Excessive inflammatory responses contribute to the pathogenesis and lethality of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. In this study, the N proteins of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), were found to bind MASP-2, a key serine protease in the lectin pathway of complement activation, resulting in excessive complement activation by potentiating MBL-dependent MASP-2 activation, and the deposition of MASP-2, C4b, activated C3 and C5b-9. Aggravated inflammatory lung injury was observed in mice infected with adenovirus expressing the N protein. Complement hyperactivation was also observed in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Either blocking the N protein:MASP-2 interaction, MASP-2 depletion or suppressing complement activation can significantly alleviate N protein-induced complement hyperactivation and lung injury in vitro and in vivo. Altogether, these data suggested that complement suppression may represent a novel therapeutic approach for pneumonia induced by these highly pathogenic coronaviruses."
(6) Most important. What now?
(6a) SARS 2003/2004 was eradicated through simple international surveillance and quarantining a few international travellers, as WHO member states cooperated with WHO and then implemented the legally binding IHR 2005 (https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations and national Pandemic Playbooks). MERS 2006 and H1N1 2009 likewise. In contrast, there was no cooperation as SARS-CoV-2 in 2019/2020 was allowed to rip, forcing the global population to deal with unmanageable consequences. This led to "gamification" of public policy, with constantly changing mandates, bad public health communications, and the current state we all now. Understandably, most people worldwide are lost, including journalists and MPs who could hold nation states accountable to act on their existing legal obligations under the IHR 2005. No one is explaining this other than a few of us on twitter - a stunning institutional dysfunction that should have far higher priority than most other COVID questions and even the origins. This is where you come in:
(6b) What does this legal framework imply for quasispecies mutant swarm dynamics? What are best and worst case scenarios in your view? I speculate that there could be significant progress from focusing on international surveillance and cooperation under WHO mechanisms, but that is hard to quantify as long as only China pursues some - arguably highly dysfunctional - version of suppression or elimination strategy. We now use the term ZeroCovid policy, but it was not needed to eradicate SARS. With the original Wuhan 2019 strain effectively eradicated, and otherwise unmitigated evolution, it could be promising to integrate your analysis with the existing, legally binding institutional framework (6a). Most ignore this perspective, but if anyone can end this pandemic, it is lawyers, not pharmaceutical companies. Would be good to lay the ground.
Thank you! I'm still figuring substack syntax out, sorry. Edited the above, to insert part two as a reply, which was an unrelated post previously.
(5/6) Address the 'what now?' of how to stop transmission. These are just some questions I'd been meaning to ask for a while, no hurry in answering! Let me add:
(7) 'What now' for SARS-CoV-2 survivors (Long Covid) or perhaps even uninfected (PrEP): There's been longstanding research into pan-HCoV fusion inhibitors (EK1C4 for SARS-CoV-2). If such drugs work and are manufactured, why would we expect billions to die? I may be missing something, but it seems we should be able to end this pandemic? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0305-x
...as any experimental setup may be contaminated by past infections. Hence the history of the vaccine may merit more serious analysis.
(5) You mention that a vaccine targeting the full genome may be preferrable to the first-gen spike-focused ones. How does this fit with one of the possible pathogenesis theories, whereby a nucleocapsid (N protein)-heavy response contributes to organ damage, and a spike-heavy response may be preferred? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-022-01133-5
This is no rhetorical question; many of you will have looked into the complement-mediated damage in SARS-CoV-2. I'm probably just overlooking some simple mechanisms that connects the complement cascade to the vast majority of ongoing research.
Let me quote one abstract, as this may help readers get the context (preprint from 2020, published 2022): "Excessive inflammatory responses contribute to the pathogenesis and lethality of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. In this study, the N proteins of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), were found to bind MASP-2, a key serine protease in the lectin pathway of complement activation, resulting in excessive complement activation by potentiating MBL-dependent MASP-2 activation, and the deposition of MASP-2, C4b, activated C3 and C5b-9. Aggravated inflammatory lung injury was observed in mice infected with adenovirus expressing the N protein. Complement hyperactivation was also observed in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Either blocking the N protein:MASP-2 interaction, MASP-2 depletion or suppressing complement activation can significantly alleviate N protein-induced complement hyperactivation and lung injury in vitro and in vivo. Altogether, these data suggested that complement suppression may represent a novel therapeutic approach for pneumonia induced by these highly pathogenic coronaviruses."
(6) Most important. What now?
(6a) SARS 2003/2004 was eradicated through simple international surveillance and quarantining a few international travellers, as WHO member states cooperated with WHO and then implemented the legally binding IHR 2005 (https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations and national Pandemic Playbooks). MERS 2006 and H1N1 2009 likewise. In contrast, there was no cooperation as SARS-CoV-2 in 2019/2020 was allowed to rip, forcing the global population to deal with unmanageable consequences. This led to "gamification" of public policy, with constantly changing mandates, bad public health communications, and the current state we all now. Understandably, most people worldwide are lost, including journalists and MPs who could hold nation states accountable to act on their existing legal obligations under the IHR 2005. No one is explaining this other than a few of us on twitter - a stunning institutional dysfunction that should have far higher priority than most other COVID questions and even the origins. This is where you come in:
(6b) What does this legal framework imply for quasispecies mutant swarm dynamics? What are best and worst case scenarios in your view? I speculate that there could be significant progress from focusing on international surveillance and cooperation under WHO mechanisms, but that is hard to quantify as long as only China pursues some - arguably highly dysfunctional - version of suppression or elimination strategy. We now use the term ZeroCovid policy, but it was not needed to eradicate SARS. With the original Wuhan 2019 strain effectively eradicated, and otherwise unmitigated evolution, it could be promising to integrate your analysis with the existing, legally binding institutional framework (6a). Most ignore this perspective, but if anyone can end this pandemic, it is lawyers, not pharmaceutical companies. Would be good to lay the ground.
Thank you! That's sobering. -- I saw your essay earlier and found it useful for a start. Great use of the magic Clarke quote. Meta note, I wrote the above lenghty question/post also to lower the threshold for others who may have a similar background & questions as me. I've noticed many people are strangely reluctant to engage the details, as if reticence would help. May be worth picking up later as we learn more!
OK the layout in Substack is kind of hard to navigate even for the authors, assuming you're done editing I will look through at some point and answer anything that I haven't already.
Do you have a working link for the paper that you linked in this paragraph?
"And in a different region of the genome called ORF6, the proteins “produced more efficient antagonists of innate immunity than their orthologs from SARS-CoV lineages,” another effect that you’d want from a live-attenuated vaccine - but wouldn’t be expected to evolve in nature unless a bat colony was planning on putting on a production of Rent."
Dan, in reading your articles you refer to the "original fully-virulent V-1000 form" of the virus. I'm trying to understand this information and seem to be getting lost. Would you mind describing this? Thanks
It just means the original chimera at full strength.
To make a LAV first you need to make a viable chimera that contains all the genes the virus is known to express, like with Yellow Fever for its LAV they couldn't use any existing wild natural strain - they had to make a chimera first.
That's the fully virulent V-1000 form, the chimera before it undergoes attenuation to become a LAV
Thank you for this explanation. So to ask simply : is this virus undergoing its evolutionary pathway as it would in a lab environment? Like gain of function but on live hosts - Human and animal - not in a lab? If so, it's as if we're watching reality play out from a science fiction movie.
I'm sorry for what you know. The human species has met its match as most life forms eventually do. I can only pray there is a better place for our souls. Again, thank you for your work and explanations thereof.
Sure thing, at some point the people who make it are going to have to re-organize urban centers the same way they had to be around cholera and other diseases in the past, but yeah it's going to be a long road getting there.
Exactly. Although those urban centers relied on a very different infrastructure. We don't have the same kinds of urban productivity as we did then. Who the hell knows what the remains of this apocalypse will look like. This making Atlas Shrugged look like a lullaby story.
If Covid was a poorly prepared live attenuated vaccine for something else, as you allude to, then perhaps the people who had Covid, have in a poor way inoculated themselves for "what is to come", for that "something else"?
I cannot shake off the thought that "something else" is Omicron, and Covid-19 was a vaccine against Omicron. In this hypothesis, Omicron is a bioweapon, which spreads fast, is unstoppable, and conveniently has a mysterious delayed effect, for example killing immune system or being a prion or whatever.
Is there something that you know, that makes the above supposition contrary to known facts?
Also do you think that "Omicron" is a result of natural course of event or is a lab product? I cannot explain lack of synonymous mutation by anything natural, but I am not a geneticist.
The virus was originally built on humanized mice so it's picking up the ability to infect them as it returns closer to its original form, the synonymous mutations are just returning from codon deoptimization which is covered in part two.
it's clearly going through gatekeeping mutations, I've been talking about that a lot on Twitter.
Okay, I guess I have to read up more, what alarmed me was LACK of synonymous mutations, I thought that any serial or natural passage or other evolution of virus for 1.5 years would pick synonymous mutations, but there was only one synonymous mutation present in Omicron, compares to the ancestral variant. This kind of convinced me that it was directly genetically edited and did not "evolve".
Omicron was possibly edited to be a mouse friendly variant for lab experiments to sell humanized mice, along with mousized virus, to scientists for experiments. This is the only benign explanation I could come up with. The rest of explanations are much less benign.
But overall your theory of Covid being a possibly incomplete LAV makes sense to me and does not contradict anything I know. I read a lot of things about it and tend to remember stuff. Thanks a lot.
Right the issue with synonymous mutations I don't think is directly related to serial passage necessarily, but instead codon deoptimization which is part of making a LAV. Maybe what the CCP did isn't public yet, who knows - bottomline is it's clearly not natural behavior. Also could be related to gatekeeping mutations, the hallmark of a LAV reverting back, but I dunno if the data is out there to say for sure.
And yeah it's jumping back into mice because it's headed home, back to its original form. As it goes its picked up deer as well, other lab animals, and yeah it's going to be getting stronger so long as there's on going transmission events.
Practically speaking what most interests me, is will the previously infected people be severely reinfected. I understand that we can only be guessing. I had a recent covid case in the family and no one else was infected besides my wife.
You did get me convinced that this is not the end of the story, but the beginning. It is upsetting, but at the same time truth is truth.
Thanks. I finished reading Part II. Perhaps I did not get some things but I understood most paragraphs. I do understand that it is complicated and I am a scrap man, formerly computer science and business major. Thank you
Thanks for reading!! And holy shit I thought you were a trained scientist from the start 🤣
Feel free to ask questions, especially with quotes from the text which is easy to do on here. And if you notice the about page, there are a few other articles that discuss the same phenomenon.
The fact you are a scrap man is actually fucking awesome, and should give everybody a tremendous amount of hope, that you've been able to contribute so much with your background and lack of formal experience with this stuff professionally.
Actually I have two masters degrees, computer science from Moscow State University and MBA from the University of Chicago. I also created and own a website https://www.algebra.com/ which gets a few million visitors every month.
That said I quit my job and opened a physical business 10 years ago, which ended up doing rigging and scrap metal. Warehouse, Semi trucks, forklifts and all that.
That's kind of my story, but I always was into science and tend to read a lot.
What are you let views on masks? Surely if the swarm is around your body as you breath a mask makes no difference expect for the angle of departure from the face?
What about vaccination. Is it better to have some protection than none at all if we will all be in the same position eventually?
As you seem to be an expert in this field, what would you predict we will see next in terms of gatekeeping mutations etc?
In your research what kind of chimera could we be looking at? IFR etc
And going forwards what would concern you the most? ADE,OAS, some type of mareks disease. If you had to pick a side in a better position would it be vaxxed or unvaxed?
- Proper masks likely help exposure somewhere like a supermarket, but won't do much in a packed classroom for five hours. Nasal irrigation when you get home is likely a lot more important.
- No a one-protein vaccine is not a good idea. A shitty vaccine creates far greater problems in the future, this article lays that out.
- It's going to be getting stronger.
- Something like SARS or MERS
- The virus is coming for everyone. None of these distinctions matter, Western societies are in the process of collapsing.
Good question, I honestly don't know enough about the logistics of feeding everybody in China and India, but given the population densities I imagine there's going to be a certain amount of famine there as well.
Lockdowns that starve people to death aren't good, but the west is clearly doing it wrong.
At the very least public buildings all need to have their doors and windows open 24 seven no matter what, but that's obviously not gonna happen.
So yes, whatever a government needs to do to limit public transmission is the only way to save lives, if there's ongoing public transmission people are going to die.
But I don't really know how to judge what's going to happen in Asia because I don't have any feel for how the society is structured really. China might see their own revolution eventually, I just don't see any sign of it anytime soon.
China's economy appears to be crashing due to a massive real estate bubble at this time. Beyond anything modern due to state regulations that only allows Chinese to buy real estate and not many other investments. This may result in a regime change, but the people have already been conditioned and most likely will depend on the government, no matter who is in charge.
Yup no worries, Substack doesn't have a backend comment panel and replies just get tacked onto one email chain so it makes them hard to find, so if I don't respond to one right away they get pushed down - feel free to ping me in the future.
Wonderful essay. My personal favorite is:
I absolutely LOVE THIS:
sustained COVID-19 infections that overtime more protection was produced against HCoV-OC43’s spike that its own, in an apparent expression of Original Antigenic Sin, that should’ve defined SARS-CoV-2’s infective family and provided clues to its origins – not a paradox.
Paradoxical because HCoV-OC43 is a coronavirus that’s been endemic to humans for at least 100 years, possibly originally jumping into humans during a bovine-based pandemic in the late 19th century, and traces its origins through cows and back to mice.
Also, China seems to be very extreme on lockdowns.
It also does things that we do not do, like spraying surfaces and using flame throwers. What does China know that "we" do not know? Specifically about how it spreads?
Do you think they know what the virus wants to revert to?
thanks
Yes of course, to make a LAV first you have to make the chimera, that was the process with Yellow Fever to get a LAV that worked - OPV is also based off a chimera as well I believe. So it's an unnatural construct, but in the case of Yellow Fever and OPV/Polio, they had genes spliced around but the chimeras were almost exactly the same as the wild virus, they just mixed the genes around.
That's nothing like the chimera they had to build to make for COVID, which we know is based off both bat and common-cold genes from the OAS it elicits - so it's fundamentally unnatural. Something like the one in UNC in 2015, or like SARS or MERS which were also likely templates that got out before they were attenuated too far down into LAVs.
China was likely keeping the original highly-pathogenic chimera in its complete form as a weapon, or for an "accidental" release near Taiwan, which they'd miraculously have the perfect LAV already ready for, allowing them to come to the rescue.
So yes China knows exactly where this thing is going, and they're going apeshit because they know how horrible it is, and because even at this stage it may already have seeded something HIV-like in people who were hardly even symptomatic, that won't emerge for years. China is doing the reasonable thing and taking the threat seriously, the West is sleepwalking directly into extinction.
This entire pandemic is going to be a massive lesson in the concept of the passage of time between East and West, and it is not going to end well for us.
Thank you. As you know I am an anti-vaxxer.
But at the same time I am trying to keep an open mind for an idea that Covid (all Covid, not just Omicron) may carry a hidden danger despite being seemingly mild for most people. And that China, knowing better what Covid is, may be not stupid in imposing super costly totalitarian mitigations.
What you said in your response above is internally consistent with everything I know.
There is also a suggestion floating around that Omicron is itself a secretly lab made "mild natural Covid vaccine". (the lack of synonymous gene changes make me personally almost certain that Omicron is lab made) I spent days considering it but decided that it is not mild enough to truly be such and we continue to be played with.
I am glad that I found your writings, because they explain not only that "Covid was made in a lab", but what was going on in the lab and why.
Russian conspiracy theorists always say that Covid was made at UNC and released in Wuhan to hide the origin. I do not dwell on this too much because in my own mind, there is no evidence to go by.
Also if it was not made by the Chinese, they would not know enough to be panicking as much as they do.
Now going back to Chinese mitigation such as spraying, do you think that there is alternative ways for covid to spread besides "the air"? You mentioned cholera once and it got me thinking. Cholera was also thought to spread via "miasma" until they figured out the water route.
Yeah everyone talking about Omicron being made in a lab is missing the fact that COVID was itself made in a lab, so it's going to continually display unnatural behavior. All that's happening is a LAV reverting, which isn't natural evolution and so looks unnatural.
That conspiracy isn't all that far off, in that at least the theory for this SARS-like LAV almost certainly started at UNC since that's the only place on earth making them, so that's kinda at least halfway there if not three-quarters. The research behind COVID started at UNC even if the virus itself might not have, or maybe it did - not sure it matters that much in the end.
And yeah COVID can almost certainly spread through poop, there was one case in Hong Kong apartments back at the start I think, and just yeah based on the fact the full swarm is in anal swab samples, seems to follow poops spreads it very well. That's also likely what accelerated the deattenuation at the WMG, since they brought in 250k extra people and almost certainly thousands of porta-potties.
That haphazard sanitation likely created the conditions for the FCS to emerge, and may be why China is spraying all over the place, I've heard they shit in holes basically everywhere over there, so I'd imagine in the cities they have homeless and whoever else crapping outside, so they need those sprays.
Thanks. It is a really good point about LAV reverting looking unnatural because the original LAV (the wuhan virus) was unnatural, so it would behave unnaturally when reverting, also. I never thought about that and while I do not know enough to make a judgment as to whether what you say is definitely true, it is a possibility that I cannot dismiss.
Omicron being a product of a lab is my pet theory, so I will have hard times letting it go and will keep seeking confirming evidence, but I will not forget what you said and it makes a good amount of sense.
Past immunity does still seem to work though, right? What is the experience with past coronaviruses, like cold coronaviruses, does natural immunity also wane over time?
If, hypothetically, a covid-recovered person like me was challenged with the full strength chimera virus that Covid was attempted to be a live vaccine for, do you think that chimera would fuck me up or it would be a no big deal?
I do know that it is hypothetical but I like to think about hypotheticals. I have a well developed sense of danger and I was able to stay out of a few bad shits before, like I was in cash during all major stock market crashes etc. My sense of danger also blared alarm about covid vax.
And when you said what you said about the virus regaining full strength, my sense of danger was also alarmed because I realized that it is not just crazy talk from an uninformed twitter weirdo, but there is a lot of logic behind that suggestion.
But the main question for me is, will the full strength virus be able to blow through existing natural immunity, especially for the vaccine-free. I believe that the vaccinated may not be acquiring the proper multi-antigen natural immunity but just make more useless Wuhan antibodies when challenged with live virus.
We are living in very interesting times.
It's discussed at the start of part I, when OPV reverts in orphanages, the virus that emerges, a vaccine-derived polio-virus (VDPV) blows through both natural and vaccine immunity - they are an unstoppable nightmare.
Other CVs are natural and do natural things, this is not undergoing a natural process.
It's happening in real time, go back in my Twitter at any point and I have been steadily sounding the alarm at each phase of this, I am trying to explain what's happening but no one wants to listen.
Thanks. This was a very interesting discussion. I understand that nothing is certainly decided, but your theory does not contradict anything I know. As always predicting the future is dangerous. But I do think that your alarmist mindset is actually grounded in reality.
Dan, can you explain what the attraction is to a LAV?
Because they're the most effective kind of vaccine when you do them right, it's explained in the article.
I understand that viruses may possibly cause cancers, which also deattenuate in nature. Every cancer can revert/deattenuate back into the the histology of the basic tissue of origin. My postulate is that viruses effect these tissues and swarm into cancers of the host tissue substrates, as well as other strains of the virus. This cancer effect on tissues by viruses may be caused from vaccines as well, which is not well proven only theorized in both accounts. But if it proves to be a possibility that viruses/vaccines create cancers, then how much new cancer is being created with COVID-19 and it's multiple vaccines?
The organ systems that manifest the virus, may not only allow it to develop into various strains of virus for the particular organ in a swarm, but also may develop many types of cancer for host tissues in a viral swarm: cancer on a quantum mathematical scale.
Yeah that's a terrifying question, and you're right in that there are likely going to be all kinds of cancers emerging from both the virus and the gene-therapies.
I don't have a good background in this, but I can point you to someone who does - He does study-groups on Sundays:
https://twitter.com/pizzapicklespur
There is no terror when you know the truth, only resolve. Stay strong and keep up the good fight. Connect with others whom speak the truth and be at peace as the war rages around you. Love conquers fear.
Outstanding work Dan, thank you. You got serious flak for this, going public took real courage. Three (perhaps borderline helpful) points, next post three questions.
(1) Can't believe that these questions, especially the implications of quasispecies swarm behavior, are not widely addressed by the scientific community. This goes beyond SARS-CoV-2.
(2) Yet I understand: it took me more than a year to start & finish some (most?) of your essays after first seeing them, because they are at odds with the wider literature that so many keep churning out. Same dynamics as we see in climate science, where the essential - and challenging detail - is easily buried in a mass of ill-understood mainstream trivialities. No easy way out but to laserfocus on what matters most.
(3) Confronting the masses with complexity they cannot possibly solve is a conscious choice (=flooding the zone) for both the pandemic and climate breakdown - call it schismogenesis, bodyguard manipulation or "gamification" of public policy, to take some of the twitter hashtags we've been attributing to it -, because public discourse could easily be reorganized if people wanted. Key question: what now?
[edit: inserted second part here for context; I first thought it's too long]
Three questions that would help me to see clarified:
(4) You mention "unproven" mRNA vaccine technology: is it? - "The basic formulation for the current mRNA vaccine was submitted for patent in 2010. A MERS adoption was field tested for 10 years on every military member vacationing with a gun to the hostile parts of Middle East." (https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1585284107331899394) - The level of public discourse is poor especially among many anti-vaccine conspiracy folks and pandemic youtube doctors, who misled their audience. After global Let 'er R.I.P policy, outside China there is no good way anymore to separate experiment and control groups, as any experimental setup may be contaminated from past infections. Hence the history of the vaccine may merit more serious analysis.
(5) You mention that a vaccine targeting the full genome may be preferrable to the first-gen spike-focused ones. How does this fit with one of the possible pathogenesis theories, whereby a nucleocapsid (N protein)-heavy response contributes to organ damage, and a spike-heavy response may be preferred? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-022-01133-5
This is no rhetorical question; many of you will have looked into the complement-mediated damage in SARS-CoV-2. I'm probably just overlooking some simple mechanisms that connects the complement cascade to the vast majority of ongoing research.
Let me quote one abstract, as this may help readers get the context (preprint from 2020, published 2022): "Excessive inflammatory responses contribute to the pathogenesis and lethality of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. In this study, the N proteins of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), were found to bind MASP-2, a key serine protease in the lectin pathway of complement activation, resulting in excessive complement activation by potentiating MBL-dependent MASP-2 activation, and the deposition of MASP-2, C4b, activated C3 and C5b-9. Aggravated inflammatory lung injury was observed in mice infected with adenovirus expressing the N protein. Complement hyperactivation was also observed in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Either blocking the N protein:MASP-2 interaction, MASP-2 depletion or suppressing complement activation can significantly alleviate N protein-induced complement hyperactivation and lung injury in vitro and in vivo. Altogether, these data suggested that complement suppression may represent a novel therapeutic approach for pneumonia induced by these highly pathogenic coronaviruses."
(6) Most important. What now?
(6a) SARS 2003/2004 was eradicated through simple international surveillance and quarantining a few international travellers, as WHO member states cooperated with WHO and then implemented the legally binding IHR 2005 (https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations and national Pandemic Playbooks). MERS 2006 and H1N1 2009 likewise. In contrast, there was no cooperation as SARS-CoV-2 in 2019/2020 was allowed to rip, forcing the global population to deal with unmanageable consequences. This led to "gamification" of public policy, with constantly changing mandates, bad public health communications, and the current state we all now. Understandably, most people worldwide are lost, including journalists and MPs who could hold nation states accountable to act on their existing legal obligations under the IHR 2005. No one is explaining this other than a few of us on twitter - a stunning institutional dysfunction that should have far higher priority than most other COVID questions and even the origins. This is where you come in:
(6b) What does this legal framework imply for quasispecies mutant swarm dynamics? What are best and worst case scenarios in your view? I speculate that there could be significant progress from focusing on international surveillance and cooperation under WHO mechanisms, but that is hard to quantify as long as only China pursues some - arguably highly dysfunctional - version of suppression or elimination strategy. We now use the term ZeroCovid policy, but it was not needed to eradicate SARS. With the original Wuhan 2019 strain effectively eradicated, and otherwise unmitigated evolution, it could be promising to integrate your analysis with the existing, legally binding institutional framework (6a). Most ignore this perspective, but if anyone can end this pandemic, it is lawyers, not pharmaceutical companies. Would be good to lay the ground.
Great essays & questions here, thanks all!
Not sure what you mean by what now, I've written other articles about how to fight this - but like you observed, no one is listening.
Can't really answer "what now?" - way too open ended. Billions will die, not sure what else you need.
https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/tips-for-surviving-humanitys-darkest?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/only-yahwehs-breath-can-save-us-now
Thank you! I'm still figuring substack syntax out, sorry. Edited the above, to insert part two as a reply, which was an unrelated post previously.
(5/6) Address the 'what now?' of how to stop transmission. These are just some questions I'd been meaning to ask for a while, no hurry in answering! Let me add:
(7) 'What now' for SARS-CoV-2 survivors (Long Covid) or perhaps even uninfected (PrEP): There's been longstanding research into pan-HCoV fusion inhibitors (EK1C4 for SARS-CoV-2). If such drugs work and are manufactured, why would we expect billions to die? I may be missing something, but it seems we should be able to end this pandemic? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0305-x
HIV doesn't have a vaccine because of the nature of the quasi-species swarm, humanity has had 40 years to attempt it and unlimited resources
There isn't going to be a cure. 
It's airborne HIV, the things youve been talking about are going to help preserve life but they aren't a cure
 i've linked a few other articles, that's where your answers are. 
...as any experimental setup may be contaminated by past infections. Hence the history of the vaccine may merit more serious analysis.
(5) You mention that a vaccine targeting the full genome may be preferrable to the first-gen spike-focused ones. How does this fit with one of the possible pathogenesis theories, whereby a nucleocapsid (N protein)-heavy response contributes to organ damage, and a spike-heavy response may be preferred? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-022-01133-5
This is no rhetorical question; many of you will have looked into the complement-mediated damage in SARS-CoV-2. I'm probably just overlooking some simple mechanisms that connects the complement cascade to the vast majority of ongoing research.
Let me quote one abstract, as this may help readers get the context (preprint from 2020, published 2022): "Excessive inflammatory responses contribute to the pathogenesis and lethality of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. In this study, the N proteins of highly pathogenic human coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), were found to bind MASP-2, a key serine protease in the lectin pathway of complement activation, resulting in excessive complement activation by potentiating MBL-dependent MASP-2 activation, and the deposition of MASP-2, C4b, activated C3 and C5b-9. Aggravated inflammatory lung injury was observed in mice infected with adenovirus expressing the N protein. Complement hyperactivation was also observed in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Either blocking the N protein:MASP-2 interaction, MASP-2 depletion or suppressing complement activation can significantly alleviate N protein-induced complement hyperactivation and lung injury in vitro and in vivo. Altogether, these data suggested that complement suppression may represent a novel therapeutic approach for pneumonia induced by these highly pathogenic coronaviruses."
(6) Most important. What now?
(6a) SARS 2003/2004 was eradicated through simple international surveillance and quarantining a few international travellers, as WHO member states cooperated with WHO and then implemented the legally binding IHR 2005 (https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations and national Pandemic Playbooks). MERS 2006 and H1N1 2009 likewise. In contrast, there was no cooperation as SARS-CoV-2 in 2019/2020 was allowed to rip, forcing the global population to deal with unmanageable consequences. This led to "gamification" of public policy, with constantly changing mandates, bad public health communications, and the current state we all now. Understandably, most people worldwide are lost, including journalists and MPs who could hold nation states accountable to act on their existing legal obligations under the IHR 2005. No one is explaining this other than a few of us on twitter - a stunning institutional dysfunction that should have far higher priority than most other COVID questions and even the origins. This is where you come in:
(6b) What does this legal framework imply for quasispecies mutant swarm dynamics? What are best and worst case scenarios in your view? I speculate that there could be significant progress from focusing on international surveillance and cooperation under WHO mechanisms, but that is hard to quantify as long as only China pursues some - arguably highly dysfunctional - version of suppression or elimination strategy. We now use the term ZeroCovid policy, but it was not needed to eradicate SARS. With the original Wuhan 2019 strain effectively eradicated, and otherwise unmitigated evolution, it could be promising to integrate your analysis with the existing, legally binding institutional framework (6a). Most ignore this perspective, but if anyone can end this pandemic, it is lawyers, not pharmaceutical companies. Would be good to lay the ground.
Great essays & questions here, thanks all!
In theory and practice a full genome vaccine always works better, however that's only against natural viruses not reverting LAVs
There is no vaccine against HIV for a reason, this is like trying to miraculously find that as well as dealing with the airborne transmission.
The best bet for treatment is going to be fasting and antivirals, probably lots of botanicals people aren't looking at or even thinking about.
https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/azraels-inoculation-against-a-hardened
Thank you! That's sobering. -- I saw your essay earlier and found it useful for a start. Great use of the magic Clarke quote. Meta note, I wrote the above lenghty question/post also to lower the threshold for others who may have a similar background & questions as me. I've noticed many people are strangely reluctant to engage the details, as if reticence would help. May be worth picking up later as we learn more!
OK the layout in Substack is kind of hard to navigate even for the authors, assuming you're done editing I will look through at some point and answer anything that I haven't already.
Happy Thanksgiving and thanks for reading!!
Hello Dan,
I pray that you are doing well. Great essay!
Do you have a working link for the paper that you linked in this paragraph?
"And in a different region of the genome called ORF6, the proteins “produced more efficient antagonists of innate immunity than their orthologs from SARS-CoV lineages,” another effect that you’d want from a live-attenuated vaccine - but wouldn’t be expected to evolve in nature unless a bat colony was planning on putting on a production of Rent."
Was it about interferon suppression?
Thank you in advance for your help with this.
Best,
TaNaisha
Thanks for the catch!! Fixed the link, here's the paper: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33765414/
Thank you.
Dan, in reading your articles you refer to the "original fully-virulent V-1000 form" of the virus. I'm trying to understand this information and seem to be getting lost. Would you mind describing this? Thanks
It just means the original chimera at full strength.
To make a LAV first you need to make a viable chimera that contains all the genes the virus is known to express, like with Yellow Fever for its LAV they couldn't use any existing wild natural strain - they had to make a chimera first.
That's the fully virulent V-1000 form, the chimera before it undergoes attenuation to become a LAV
Thank you for this explanation. So to ask simply : is this virus undergoing its evolutionary pathway as it would in a lab environment? Like gain of function but on live hosts - Human and animal - not in a lab? If so, it's as if we're watching reality play out from a science fiction movie.
Not exactly no, the real world isn't a lab environment as the paper explains.
But it doesn't matter, what is happening now is worse than any science-fiction movie that I've ever seen.
I'm sorry for what you know. The human species has met its match as most life forms eventually do. I can only pray there is a better place for our souls. Again, thank you for your work and explanations thereof.
Sure thing, at some point the people who make it are going to have to re-organize urban centers the same way they had to be around cholera and other diseases in the past, but yeah it's going to be a long road getting there.
Exactly. Although those urban centers relied on a very different infrastructure. We don't have the same kinds of urban productivity as we did then. Who the hell knows what the remains of this apocalypse will look like. This making Atlas Shrugged look like a lullaby story.
If Covid was a poorly prepared live attenuated vaccine for something else, as you allude to, then perhaps the people who had Covid, have in a poor way inoculated themselves for "what is to come", for that "something else"?
I cannot shake off the thought that "something else" is Omicron, and Covid-19 was a vaccine against Omicron. In this hypothesis, Omicron is a bioweapon, which spreads fast, is unstoppable, and conveniently has a mysterious delayed effect, for example killing immune system or being a prion or whatever.
Is there something that you know, that makes the above supposition contrary to known facts?
Yes, you're waving your hands at a comprehensive theory that I've already laid out, what you're saying doesn't make any sense.
I have no idea why you refuse to wrap your head around it, I'm sorry good luck.
Also do you think that "Omicron" is a result of natural course of event or is a lab product? I cannot explain lack of synonymous mutation by anything natural, but I am not a geneticist.
The virus was originally built on humanized mice so it's picking up the ability to infect them as it returns closer to its original form, the synonymous mutations are just returning from codon deoptimization which is covered in part two.
it's clearly going through gatekeeping mutations, I've been talking about that a lot on Twitter.
Okay, I guess I have to read up more, what alarmed me was LACK of synonymous mutations, I thought that any serial or natural passage or other evolution of virus for 1.5 years would pick synonymous mutations, but there was only one synonymous mutation present in Omicron, compares to the ancestral variant. This kind of convinced me that it was directly genetically edited and did not "evolve".
Omicron was possibly edited to be a mouse friendly variant for lab experiments to sell humanized mice, along with mousized virus, to scientists for experiments. This is the only benign explanation I could come up with. The rest of explanations are much less benign.
But overall your theory of Covid being a possibly incomplete LAV makes sense to me and does not contradict anything I know. I read a lot of things about it and tend to remember stuff. Thanks a lot.
Right the issue with synonymous mutations I don't think is directly related to serial passage necessarily, but instead codon deoptimization which is part of making a LAV. Maybe what the CCP did isn't public yet, who knows - bottomline is it's clearly not natural behavior. Also could be related to gatekeeping mutations, the hallmark of a LAV reverting back, but I dunno if the data is out there to say for sure.
And yeah it's jumping back into mice because it's headed home, back to its original form. As it goes its picked up deer as well, other lab animals, and yeah it's going to be getting stronger so long as there's on going transmission events.
Thanks, glad we both think that it is unnatural.
Practically speaking what most interests me, is will the previously infected people be severely reinfected. I understand that we can only be guessing. I had a recent covid case in the family and no one else was infected besides my wife.
You did get me convinced that this is not the end of the story, but the beginning. It is upsetting, but at the same time truth is truth.
Thanks. I finished reading Part II. Perhaps I did not get some things but I understood most paragraphs. I do understand that it is complicated and I am a scrap man, formerly computer science and business major. Thank you
Thanks for reading!! And holy shit I thought you were a trained scientist from the start 🤣
Feel free to ask questions, especially with quotes from the text which is easy to do on here. And if you notice the about page, there are a few other articles that discuss the same phenomenon.
The fact you are a scrap man is actually fucking awesome, and should give everybody a tremendous amount of hope, that you've been able to contribute so much with your background and lack of formal experience with this stuff professionally.
Actually I have two masters degrees, computer science from Moscow State University and MBA from the University of Chicago. I also created and own a website https://www.algebra.com/ which gets a few million visitors every month.
That said I quit my job and opened a physical business 10 years ago, which ended up doing rigging and scrap metal. Warehouse, Semi trucks, forklifts and all that.
That's kind of my story, but I always was into science and tend to read a lot.
I will ask questions, yes
Oh wow really cool on the website, I imagine you'll get increasing traffic as more and more families look for online resources.
And keep them coming!!
What are you let views on masks? Surely if the swarm is around your body as you breath a mask makes no difference expect for the angle of departure from the face?
What about vaccination. Is it better to have some protection than none at all if we will all be in the same position eventually?
As you seem to be an expert in this field, what would you predict we will see next in terms of gatekeeping mutations etc?
In your research what kind of chimera could we be looking at? IFR etc
And going forwards what would concern you the most? ADE,OAS, some type of mareks disease. If you had to pick a side in a better position would it be vaxxed or unvaxed?
- Proper masks likely help exposure somewhere like a supermarket, but won't do much in a packed classroom for five hours. Nasal irrigation when you get home is likely a lot more important.
- No a one-protein vaccine is not a good idea. A shitty vaccine creates far greater problems in the future, this article lays that out.
- It's going to be getting stronger.
- Something like SARS or MERS
- The virus is coming for everyone. None of these distinctions matter, Western societies are in the process of collapsing.
Why just Western societies? You think the Chinese way of harsh lockdowns is the right way to go and will see them through this?
Good question, I honestly don't know enough about the logistics of feeding everybody in China and India, but given the population densities I imagine there's going to be a certain amount of famine there as well.
Lockdowns that starve people to death aren't good, but the west is clearly doing it wrong.
At the very least public buildings all need to have their doors and windows open 24 seven no matter what, but that's obviously not gonna happen.
So yes, whatever a government needs to do to limit public transmission is the only way to save lives, if there's ongoing public transmission people are going to die.
But I don't really know how to judge what's going to happen in Asia because I don't have any feel for how the society is structured really. China might see their own revolution eventually, I just don't see any sign of it anytime soon.
China's economy appears to be crashing due to a massive real estate bubble at this time. Beyond anything modern due to state regulations that only allows Chinese to buy real estate and not many other investments. This may result in a regime change, but the people have already been conditioned and most likely will depend on the government, no matter who is in charge.
I don't think any government on earth is terrible stable right now, it's going to be interesting times for everyone I think.
Hi Dan, these are genuine questions, not trying to troll!
Yup no worries, Substack doesn't have a backend comment panel and replies just get tacked onto one email chain so it makes them hard to find, so if I don't respond to one right away they get pushed down - feel free to ping me in the future.